lick here for Part 1: Introduction
…here for Part 2: Tories and Brexit Party
…here for Part 3: Labour and Lib-Dems

SNP and Plaid Cymru

In addition to their havering over Brexit, Labour under Corbyn have done nothing to fix the deep institutional sickness in Scottish Labour and are no better than most English politicians at giving the impression that they give any distinctive shit about Scotland at all. So the SNP are still riding high as the main alternative to the Tories in Scotland and, as ever, will interpret this anti-Tory, anti-Brexit vote as expressing support for a second independence referendum.

Click here Part 1: Introduction
…here for Part 2: Tories and Brexit Party
…here for Part 4: SNP, Plaid Cymru and conclusion.

Labour

Labour head into this election well behind in the polls and with at least some of the energy having drained out of the Corbyn project by the internal tensions over Brexit, problems over anti-Semitism and the ongoing, concerted campaign to discredit Corbyn himself, which has had some success in pushing down his personal approval ratings. So there are some challenges.

Click here for Part 1: Introduction
…here for Part 3: Labour and Lib-Dems
…here for Part 4: SNP, Plaid Cymru and conclusion.

Conservatives

The Tories have changed a bit, since last time around and a lot since Cameron, especially rhetorically. They are likely to suffer some losses from their remainer wing, mostly to the Lib-Dems and the SNP. So their path to a majority relies on winning lots of leave-voting, historically Labour seats in the post-industrial heartlands of England and Wales.

.Click here for Part 2: Tories and Brexit Party
…here for Part 3: Labour and Lib-Dems
…here for Part 4: SNP, Plaid Cymru and conclusion.

I have been saying for quite some time now that Brexit will never happen. And guess what? It still hasn’t! Nor is it much closer to happening, although of course that could change after the General Election on December 12th. there is only one result that makes Brexit really likely to finally occur, namely a proper Tory victory, with a proper majority, no depending on the DUP, let alone the Lib Dems. This is, however, not an especially probable result, despite the current polling.

Why is this not likely? I’m going to outline the situation with this election, mostly for the benefit of interested observers who are not intimately familiar with the tangled cluster-fuck that is British politics at the moment, though I hope Brits find it useful too.